Does anyone else think drywall mud work is 90% skill and 10% luck? My 3rd coat turned into a disaster

I've been patching up a wall in my basement for the last two weeks. First coat went on smooth, second coat needed a little sanding but fine. Third coat, same bucket, same trowel, same technique. It started peeling and crinkling like old skin. No idea why. Temp was the same, humidity felt the same. My buddy says I overworked it, my neighbor says I didn't mix it enough. Which is it? Has anyone else had a coat go sideways for no obvious reason? I'm about to just tear out the drywall and start over.

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